British Columbia’s wine industry is facing an inflection point. For decades, producers, especially in the Okanagan Valley, have built a reputation for premium, cool-climate wines. But as climate volatility accelerates and the aftershocks of extreme weather continue to hit vineyards hard, the cost of producing B.C. wine is rising sharply. Consumers are about to feel the effects in both price and availability.
The cold reality: devastating crop losses
The turning point came in January 2024, when a polar vortex descended on the Okanagan Valley, plunging temperatures to -27°C or lower in some regions. For grapevines, these extreme temperatures proved fatal. The deep freeze killed primary and secondary buds across thousands of acres, and many vines were too damaged to recover.
According to industry reports, the 2024 harvest produced as little as two to three percent of a normal year’s yield, effectively wiping out a full vintage for many growers. Wineries that rely exclusively on estate-grown fruit had no grapes to process, forcing them to source fruit from outside the province or to draw down reserves from previous vintages.
Long-term impact: more than just one bad year
The effects of the 2024 freeze are not limited to a single missing vintage. Replanting a vineyard takes three to five years before new vines begin producing high-quality fruit suitable for winemaking. In the meantime, those vineyards remain largely unproductive, meaning that many wineries will be operating with limited inventory well into 2027 or beyond.
Compounding this are rising threats from other climate-related risks, including early budbreak followed by spring frosts, prolonged summer droughts, wildfire smoke exposure and increased disease pressure in warmer, more humid conditions. These variables make every growing season more unpredictable and ultimately more expensive. However, the 2025 vintage appears to have exceeded initial expectations, with surviving vines producing very well.
The economics: input costs climb as yields shrink
From the ground up, grape growing in B.C. is becoming costlier. Input costs, including irrigation, labour, fertilizers, pest management and insurance, have all risen steadily while revenue has slowed. Add to this the expense of frost-mitigation systems such as wind machines or vineyard heaters, replanting damaged blocks and buying barrels, bottles and labels in a disrupted global supply chain. It’s no surprise many wineries are feeling squeezed.
For producers, this creates a fundamental challenge. They must maintain quality, ensure survival and remain price-competitive, even as many consumers are used to paying $18 to $25 for a bottle of local wine. The pricing sweet spot is no longer sustainable for some, particularly smaller, family-run wineries, which lack economies of scale. Producers are fighting to maintain margins as costs per bottle rise due to lower production and fixed overhead.
What consumers can expect
In the coming 12 to 24 months, wine lovers in B.C. will notice several key shifts:
Higher prices
With significantly lower supply and higher production costs, many B.C. wines will become more expensive on a per-unit basis. Consumers can expect to see average bottle prices increase by 10 to 30 percent, depending on the varietal and the winery’s situation. Premium wines already retailing for more than $40 may rise even higher due to scarcity and increased demand for limited releases.
Reduced availability
Many small and mid-sized wineries have limited reserves from previous vintages and no 2024 vintage to bottle. As a result, their presence in retail stores and restaurants may shrink dramatically. Some will prioritize direct-to-consumer sales through wine clubs, on-site tasting rooms and online orders, meaning fewer bottles will appear on liquor store shelves.
Changes in blend composition or grape sourcing
To stay afloat, some B.C. wineries have turned to imported grapes from other Canadian regions and abroad. As the industry waits for vineyards to be re-established and yields to recover, the “Crafted in B.C.” alternative has helped many sustain operations, release a 2024 vintage and maintain supply for wine club members.
While this approach helps maintain volume in the short term, it may create a divide as grape production rebounds. Some wineries may continue supplementing with out-of-province fruit, while others shift back more quickly to 100 percent B.C.-grown grapes. The program allowing the use of non-B.C. grapes was recently extended to 2025, with some in the industry noting the announcement came late in the harvest season.
Industry at a crossroads
The B.C. wine industry is now shifting from growth and expansion to adaptation and survival. Many wineries are calling for increased government support, including replanting grants, regulatory flexibility and investment in climate research. Without it, the economic toll may push some producers out of business entirely.
As B.C. winemakers navigate the challenges ahead, consumers can play a supportive role by choosing local when possible, staying open-minded about labels and varietals, and embracing what may be a leaner but more inventive period in regional winemaking.
One thing is clear. The province’s wine industry is evolving toward a more selective, premium-focused future, shaped as much by the climate as by the craft.
In response, the B.C. Wine Grape Industry Task Force has been established to help growers and related sectors rebuild a thriving industry. The Task Force is a unified initiative led by Wine Growers British Columbia, the British Columbia Grapegrowers’ Association, the British Columbia Wine Grape Council, the Wine Islands Growers’ Association and the British Columbia Wine Authority. Its mission is to strengthen B.C.’s wine sector by creating and leveraging opportunities through investment in people, place and product. Implementation of Task Force projects is scheduled for the next two years. ν
Tori Keiffer and Blake Lechkobit are agricultural advisors with MNP specializing in wineries and agriculture services. Reach them at tori.keiffer@mnp.ca or blake.lechkobit@mnp.ca